January thaw days

Back motor home coach house/shop/garage

Back deck railings shed snow

They say spring cannot be far when the January thaw begins.  But I have learned living here in MN for 15 years that it is a deceptive month, often not as close to spring as we are ready for it to be. Look carefully at the roof line behind the tall trees.   This picture of the motor coach building out back shows that the snow is beginning to melt and recede from the metal roof, that is a good sign.  Once it is gone from the roof and stays gone I will believe spring is on its way.  At least it is warmer,  30 to 36 degrees, yet the overcast and lack of bright sunshine makes it not seem so.  It is downright gloomy. More melt evidence here on the back deck step railings, snow has fallen off and even the back steps from the garage are cleared although I have not shoveled. Our driveway is cleared, but I did  shovel it twice this week, or more accurately scraped and shoveled as there was only a dusting that was melting.  Not wanting it to freeze overnight or through the day, I cleared it.  So much nicer when the snow begins to self remove as on the back garage steps.  

Back garage steps self removing snow

.Wikipedia notes " January thaw is a term applied to a thaw or rise in temperature in mid-winter found in mid-latitude North America. ... For five days around January 25, temperatures are usually significantly warmer than predicted by the sinusoidal estimate, and also warmer than neighboring temperatures on both sides".  Yes the last few days have been warmer despite the gloom.  My back muscles are thankful that there have been  the past 2 days so far without my having to take shovel in hand.  Everything is staying cleared.    

Part of our drive and front walkway from garage door windows

The Old Farmer's Almanac has this to say" Talk about a change in the weather (not that we’re complaining), but does that mean we’re in for a January “thaw?”

The January Thaw, like Indian Summer, is more than just another piece of fanciful weather lore. Annual averages really do show a slight temperature increase, and subsequent dip, during the final week of January. On average, January 23 is the coldest day of the year in much of the Northern Hemisphere. Almost exactly six months later sits July 24, the warmest day of the year, on average. Between those two dates, average daily temperatures show a fairly predictable rate of increase. While there may be deviations from that pattern during any given year, the model holds true when looked at over a period of several years.  During the January Thaw, which usually lasts for about a week, temperatures rise an average of 10° F higher than the previous week, then drop back down in time for February’s arrival. Though it’s called a “thaw,” the January Thaw doesn’t necessarily melt away snow and ice during its stay. In areas where winter weather is exceptionally cold, temperatures during the thaw may not even rise above freezing. More temperate regions, however, may even experience what could be described as a “false spring.”  Though they are a verified weather phenomenon, January Thaws don’t happen every year. In order for a singularity like the January Thaw to be recognized, it only has to appear slightly more than 50 percent of the time.  That’s the beauty of weather; though predictable to some degree, it always keeps us on our toes.

So life here in MN, confining and idling keeps thoughts on the weather, we talk about it a lot.  As the deacon mentioned last night , "What do we talk about in MN this time of year, weather, whether or not.  And  it is gloomy" He went on to remind us that as long as we are faithful Jesus keeps the light on in our hearts, hard to focus on that when not at mass.